Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x292b…697d sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,913 (+9%) realized +$2,069 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%78W / 55L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,193
7 days−$919
14 days+$710
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$1,692
other 44% −$823
politics 2% +$85
crypto 1% +$71
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 42% -24.7%
≤30d 106 +7.4% -2.8% 56% 54% -7.0%
≤90d 133 +7.9% -2.4% 59% 56% -4.1%
all 133 +7.9% -2.4% 59% 56% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 56% -4.1%
10% -11.8% 47% -13.3%
15% -20.3% 36% -21.7%
20% -28.1% 26% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$103 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1,510
Realized+$2,069
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses78 / 55
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions18
Markets (closed)133 / 151
History coverage59d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 64¢ 62¢ $240 $234 −$6 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-1%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 68¢ 97¢ $122 $172 +$50 (+41%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $180 $137 −$43 (-24%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $110 $99 −$11 (-10%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 72¢ 66¢ $101 $93 −$8 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $105 $83 −$22 (-21%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 34¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $33 $25 −$9 (-26%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 7¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $67 $1 −$66 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $21 −$8 -37%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $288 −$288 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $466 −$466 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $35 +$82 +235%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $35 +$100 +284%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $106 +$103 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $389 +$11 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 25 $105 +$31 +30%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? Jun 25 $176 +$21 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $53 +$69 +131%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $245 +$98 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $53 +$225 +422%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $158 +$120 +76%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $280 +$55 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $408 +$98 +24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $157 +$54 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $200 +$130 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$20 -61%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $158 +$105 +67%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $233 +$67 +29%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $297 +$67 +22%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $105 +$45 +43%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $233 +$82 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $157 +$38 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $157 +$33 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $199 +$61 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $126 +$96 +76%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $105 +$59 +56%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$54 +253%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $63 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $197 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $252 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $105 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $106 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 7¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $53 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $105 18h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $106 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 20h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 20h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? SELL No 99¢ $197 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 93¢ $389 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $466 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 3¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $288 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $105 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $53 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $105 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $53 4d
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $72 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $53 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $53 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $53 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $245 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $158 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,509.97 · official $1,509.98 (match) · 357 history records