Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x292b…23ce
weather · 1353 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$478 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,257 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$246
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1331 / 20
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1351 / 1353
History coverage57d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 1351 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days+$424
14 days+$426
30 days−$1,821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs LYON 52¢ 52¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $84 $82 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier FaZe Vegas 41¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Gatorian 19¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage G2 Ares 42¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Anubis Gaming 27¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $47 −$27 -57%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $28 −$28 -98%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $65 +$15 +24%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $96 +$185 +194%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 10 $54 −$4 -8%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $153 +$47 +31%
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea Jun 09 $322 +$273 +85%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 03 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on May 28? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C or below on May 28? May 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 27? May 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on May 27? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 27? May 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on May 27? May 28 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on May 27? May 28 $299 +$1 +0%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 26 $209 −$205 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 18? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 19? May 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on May 1 May 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 18? May 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 19? May 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C or below on May 19? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 19? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on May 18? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on May 19? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C or below on May 19? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on May 19? May 25 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 47°F or below on May May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 49°C on May 19? May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 18? May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 25 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 2°C or below on May 17? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 51°C on May 18? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 17? May 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 18? May 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 18? May 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% +$584
culture 4% −$2,080
sports 2% +$211
other 1% +$26
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 52¢ $114 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A SELL Saab 0¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Gatorian 19¢ $24 40h
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A BUY Saab 17¢ $17 44h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Anubis Gaming 27¢ $19 45h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 27¢ $20 45h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 27¢ $28 45h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY G2 Ares 42¢ $28 2d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $3 2d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $3 3d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 28¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage SELL Legacy 50¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY Legacy 53¢ $54 5d
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 54¢ $137 5d
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 53¢ $54 5d
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 53¢ $132 5d
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 80¢ $65 5d
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 76¢ $153 5d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $4 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $5 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $2 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $2 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $1 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $0 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $1 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $4 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 29¢ $2 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 36¢ $53 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 50% +38.2%
≤30d 129 -1.9% -11.2% 92% 5% -20.6%
≤90d 1351 +1.2% -8.5% 99% 1% -10.9%
all 1351 +1.2% -8.5% 99% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 1% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 1% -19.4%
15% -25.2% 0% -27.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.30 · official $246.30 (match) · 3500 history records