Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x292b…bf0e other 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,246 (-11%) realized −$3,222 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%6W / 55L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$3,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$2,149
other 27% −$1,149
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-81.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 0% -11.2%
all 61 -79.1% -81.1% 10% 8% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.1% 8% -21.8%
10% -82.9% 5% -29.3%
15% -84.5% 3% -36.2%
20% -86.1% 0% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -70% → late -88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$517 vs −$116 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$3,268
Realized−$3,222
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses6 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)61 / 78
History coverage590d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,160 $1,154 −$6 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $768 $763 −$5 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $710 $705 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $278 $277 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $104 $104 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 77¢ 78¢ $79 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,330 −$35 -2%
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Jun 17 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Jun 17 $33 −$7 -20%
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Miami (OH) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will BYU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hofstra win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will VCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will TCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Villanova win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will South Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Santa Clara win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Akron win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Idaho win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Troy win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Kennesaw State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will UCF win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will SMU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Northern Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Wright State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Penn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Kentucky win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Utah State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Georgia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Texas A&M win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will St. Mary's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Missouri win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ohio State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will North Carolina win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Miami (FL) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will NC State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Howard win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Tennessee State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Lehigh win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Queens win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hawaii win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Furman win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Cal Baptist win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Siena win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will McNeese win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will UMBC win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Prairie View A&M win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will LIU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will North Dakota State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $1,099 9m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $1,193 10m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $1,101 10m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croat BUY 5¢ $15 15m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 6¢ $15 16m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia BUY 5¢ $15 16m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia end BUY 8¢ $15 22m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $2,281 37m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $2,330 40m
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? SELL Yes 68¢ $21 45m
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? SELL Yes 64¢ $26 45m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 47m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 47m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 48m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $33 49m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $107 51m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 56m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 56m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 78¢ $14 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 78¢ $23 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $716 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 1h
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? BUY Yes 79¢ $33 1h
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 77¢ $117 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $284 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $773 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,267.84 · official $3,327.84 · 131 history records