Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
29 0x292a…e42f world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,624 (+32%) realized +$3,656 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 55L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$626
7 days+$1,336
14 days+$1,336
30 days+$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$3,498
other 9% +$12
economics 7% −$266
sports 2% +$607
crypto 1% −$94
finance 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +132.9% +110.7% 57% 57% +119.8%
≤30d 15 +118.8% +97.9% 53% 53% +107.2%
≤90d 26 +100.6% +81.5% 42% 42% +142.0%
all 74 +17.2% +6.0% 26% 20% +37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 20% +37.1%
10% -4.1% 20% +24.0%
15% -13.4% 19% +12.0%
20% -21.9% 18% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +153% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$63 · ×6.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$3,656
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 55
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage159d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Yes 33¢ 8¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-74%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $31 +$144 +468%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $31 +$75 +244%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$20 -80%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $207 +$89 +43%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$92 +162%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $72 +$343 +478%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $50 −$48 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $31 +$161 +525%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $84 +$246 +292%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $184 +$421 +229%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$69 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $63 −$50 -79%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 24 $408 +$52 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 14 $85 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 12 $145 −$46 -32%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $136 −$91 -67%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $466 +$1,754 +377%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $311 +$1,790 +576%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $1,183 −$392 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 24 $346 −$120 -35%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $87 −$16 -18%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $323 −$226 -70%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $29 −$19 -67%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? Mar 14 $35 −$18 -52%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $327 −$327 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Mar 08 $300 +$26 +9%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 04 $106 −$106 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $20 −$8 -41%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 04 $221 −$70 -32%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 03 $138 −$5 -4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 02 $151 −$8 -5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $445 −$39 -9%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 01 $98 −$98 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $218 +$8 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $113 −$5 -4%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $277 +$1,238 +447%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $177 +$602 +340%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $89 +$7 +8%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26, 8-9am? Feb 26 $50 +$96 +191%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $77 −$15 -20%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 25 $88 −$35 -40%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $50 −$3 -7%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $27 −$13 -49%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $125 −$73 -58%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 20 $8 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 55m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $26 56m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $175 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $17 3h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $105 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $26 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 29¢ $26 4h
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $15 21h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 43¢ $15 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $48 22h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 44¢ $47 22h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $148 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $148 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $56 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 44¢ $56 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $60 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $415 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $10 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $61 25h
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $50 2d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 90¢ $192 2d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.86 · official $10.67 · 344 history records