Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x292a…5d78 crypto 603 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,022 (-11%) realized −$6,022 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%265W / 338L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$165
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$1,685
weather 12% −$1,932
sports 7% +$65
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% -19.7%
≤30d 20 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% -19.7%
≤90d 603 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 42% -15.4%
all 603 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 42% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 39% -23.5%
15% -32.2% 36% -30.9%
20% -38.8% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$46 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,022
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses265 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)603 / 603
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 603 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $98 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$26 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $128 −$33 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $62 +$47 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $108 −$29 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $185 −$95 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $118 −$101 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $67 +$53 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $47 −$32 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$32 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$31 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$27 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $67 +$49 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$55 -54%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $243 −$240 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 23 $92 +$47 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 22 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 22 $82 +$49 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 22 $41 −$22 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 22 $57 +$37 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 22 $41 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $62 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 21 $78 −$44 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 21 $52 +$64 +124%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $152 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 21 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 21 $78 +$82 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 20 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $72 +$33 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 19 $51 +$12 +23%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 18 $30 +$13 +43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $41 +$31 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 17 $81 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 10 $36 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 10 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6AM ET May 10 $32 +$93 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 May 10 $81 +$75 +93%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $353 −$19 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 09 $36 +$20 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 08 $92 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $82 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $56 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $34 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $46 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $32 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $35 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $33 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $39 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $35 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $46 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $28 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $81 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $33 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $20 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records