Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:35:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2929…03b3 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 35L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$3
world 30% −$2
politics 8% +$19
crypto 6% −$2
tech 6% $0
sports 6% +$2
finance 5% +$2
weather 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 45% 5% -9.6%
all 63 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 8% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 8% -8.3%
10% -17.8% 8% -17.0%
15% -25.7% 6% -25.0%
20% -33.0% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage486d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $40 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $51 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $20 −$4 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $73 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $28 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $48 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +78%
Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $23 $0 -1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 30 $1 $0 -22%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 29 $23 $0 +1%
Solana above $200 on May 30? May 28 $23 $0 +2%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $22 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 22 $25 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 08 $53 $0 +0%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $29 +$2 +6%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 26 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $6 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 88¢ $6 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $21 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $39 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $36 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $33 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records