Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2928…f7a9 crypto 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$782 (-39%) realized −$750 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%30W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$115
14 days−$15
30 days−$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$677
world 4% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.2% +6.0% 38% 38% +59.1%
≤30d 126 -13.9% -22.1% 24% 24% -43.8%
≤90d 126 -13.9% -22.1% 24% 24% -43.8%
all 126 -13.9% -22.1% 24% 24% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 24% -43.8%
10% -29.5% 24% -49.2%
15% -36.3% 24% -54.1%
20% -42.6% 22% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$750
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses30 / 96
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage23d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $74 $41 −$33 (-44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Down 44¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$132 +607%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$29 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$4 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$27 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$15 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $24 +$16 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 28 $15 +$13 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $153 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.42 · official $52.42 (match) · 463 history records