Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2927…7aeb crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$523 (+78%) realized +$512 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$588
7 days+$568
14 days+$568
30 days+$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$40
other 23% +$537
sports 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +77.1% +60.2% 86% 43% +210.4%
≤30d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 39% +89.9%
≤90d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 39% +89.9%
all 18 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 39% +89.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 39% +89.9%
10% -17.4% 22% +71.7%
15% -25.4% 22% +55.2%
20% -32.7% 6% +39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$16 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.84 per $1 lost it wins $4.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$512
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 26
History coverage21d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 9¢ 50¢ $5 $28 +$23 (+461%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 20¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +47%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 +$564 +550%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 31 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $69 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 1¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Bot BUY 7¢ $5 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 15¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25 BUY 3¢ $10 2h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.60 · official $65.60 · 68 history records