Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2925…1e27 politics 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 41% −$14
sports 4% +$71
crypto 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -2.0% -11.3% 5% 4% -9.5%
all 111 +5.1% -4.9% 9% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 8% -9.4%
10% -14.0% 7% -18.1%
15% -22.3% 5% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$1 · ×12.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage116d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $296 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $932 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $198 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $410 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $423 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $277 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $258 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $243 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 29h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 33h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 47h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 11d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $188 26d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $188 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 27d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 28d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $199 28d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $199 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.96 · official $72.96 (match) · 318 history records