Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2924…dcde
other · 114 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11,290 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,807 · open +$2,114
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,299
Realized+$2,807
Unrealized+$2,114
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses71 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions53
Markets (closed)130 / 114
History coverage21d
Avg bet$797
Trades / day155.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit5%
Chart Positions 53 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$492
7 days−$11,065
14 days−$601
30 days+$2,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 57¢ $270 $1,160 +$890 (+330%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 38¢ $182 $682 +$500 (+275%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 50¢ $100 $505 +$405 (+405%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 31¢ $58 $463 +$405 (+702%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $58 $382 +$325 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $77 $351 +$274 (+356%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $77 $330 +$253 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $77 $290 +$213 (+277%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $100 $265 +$165 (+165%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $91 $238 +$147 (+162%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $77 $230 +$153 (+199%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $77 $229 +$152 (+198%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $58 $202 +$145 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $77 $130 +$53 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $73 $113 +$40 (+55%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $77 $90 +$13 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $182 $82 −$100 (-55%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $77 $59 −$18 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $24 $48 +$23 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $77 $46 −$31 (-40%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $77 $35 −$42 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $77 $19 −$58 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $28 +$2,698 +9471%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $711 −$709 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $130 +$265 +205%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $296 −$282 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,999 −$26 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $480 +$2,000 +417%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,833 +$5 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on Jun 12 $1,982 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,047 −$7 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $183 +$3 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$77 -214%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -19%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $554 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $296 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $183 +$17 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,011 −$77 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3,176 −$77 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4,550 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $254 +$38 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% +$7,934
crypto 5% +$362
tech 4% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+112.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +3.3% -6.5% 37% 20% -36.5%
≤30d 130 +134.4% +112.0% 55% 36% -18.0%
≤90d 130 +134.4% +112.0% 55% 36% -18.0%
all 130 +134.4% +112.0% 55% 36% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover155.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +112.0% 36% -18.0%
10% +91.7% 34% -25.9%
15% ← realistic here +73.2% 32% -33.0%
20% +56.2% 31% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,298.77 · official $6,298.81 (match) · 3500 history records