Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2922…d537 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
world 34% −$4
politics 10% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -3.1% -12.4% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -3.1% -12.4% 22% 0% -10.2%
all 47 +1.7% -8.0% 49% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -9.9%
10% -16.8% 4% -18.5%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -32.2% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage469d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $58 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $28 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $9 −$3 -31%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 16 $11 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Trump x Elon talk by Monday? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 07 $7 $0 +4%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 07 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 08 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $25 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $31 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $31 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $28 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $31 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $31 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $30 28d
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL No 99¢ $3 340d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 359d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? SELL Yes $1 371d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records