Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2920…c1ce crypto 414 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-4%) realized −$92 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate67%275W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$37
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$142
other 3% −$6
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 64% -14.6%
≤30d 410 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 40% -15.0%
≤90d 410 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 40% -15.0%
all 410 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 40% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 40% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 23% -23.1%
15% -30.2% 14% -30.6%
20% -37.1% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses275 / 135
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)410 / 414
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 83¢ 72¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Up 77¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.87 · official $13.85 (match) · 861 history records