Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
29 0x291c…f1a9 sports 27 markets active 6h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,987 (+16%) realized +$4,893 · open +$94
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,134per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$9,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$12
30 days+$4,762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$936
sports 30% +$3,954
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 14 +18.5% +7.2% 71% 57% +14.1%
≤90d 24 +47.0% +33.0% 62% 54% +14.1%
all 24 +47.0% +33.0% 62% 54% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.0% 54% +14.1%
10% +20.3% 42% +3.2%
15% +8.7% 33% -6.8%
20% -2.0% 29% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +70% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$34 · ×9.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.51 per $1 lost it wins $16.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$9,167
Realized+$4,893
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,134
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $8,403 $8,556 +$153 (+2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $643 $582 −$61 (-9%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $29 −$1 -4%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $43 −$2 -6%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $11 +$16 +139%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $680 +$650 +96%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 03 $4,785 +$466 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $3,060 +$745 +24%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $4,311 +$386 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $58 +$9 +16%
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $25 +$17 +66%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $14 +$3 +26%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5) May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $300 −$261 -87%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $4,880 +$2,737 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $50 +$8 +16%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? May 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $11 +$4 +38%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 04 $5 +$6 +118%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan May 04 $5 +$50 +980%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Jan Choin May 04 $4 +$6 +134%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 6h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 6h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $153 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $162 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $117 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $77 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $125 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $106 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $211 5d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $41 7d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $43 8d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 90¢ $350 8d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 90¢ $775 8d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $29 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 10d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3,150 12d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1,092 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 100¢ $1,330 14d
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL No 100¢ $5,251 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $315 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,167.27 · official $9,167.27 (match) · 115 history records