Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x291c…99b0
crypto · 281 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$65 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses204 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)277 / 281
History coverage132d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 4 History 277 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$9
14 days−$20
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 56¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Athletics 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Golden State Valkyries 70¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$2 -27%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $7 +$5 +76%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 07 $5 +$18 +365%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $5 +$3 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $9 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1AM ET May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET May 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET May 14 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11AM ET May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12AM ET May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% −$37
politics 13% −$1
other 12% −$1
sports 12% −$25
world 6% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 13h
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 57¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 82¢ $5 2d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $8 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $5 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 80¢ $10 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $5 6d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 7d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 62¢ $8 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $7 8d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $9 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $8 8d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 12d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.6% +3.7% 54% 54% +0.9%
≤30d 46 -5.4% -14.4% 76% 17% -16.2%
≤90d 210 -2.6% -11.9% 79% 4% -11.6%
all 277 -1.8% -11.2% 74% 3% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -11.1%
10% -19.7% 2% -19.6%
15% -27.4% 2% -27.4%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.92 · official $18.92 (match) · 1064 history records