Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2919…f3d7
crypto · 1174 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,742 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,740 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,740
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1124 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1240 / 1174
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day151.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 2 History 1240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,736
7 days−$1,731
14 days−$1,740
30 days−$1,740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? No 84¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Chicago Cubs 95¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$8
other 29% −$31
sports 0% +$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 51m
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 95¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 5h
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 83¢ $2 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1097 -6.9% -15.7% 90% 3% -31.3%
≤30d 1240 -6.3% -15.2% 91% 3% -29.8%
≤90d 1240 -6.3% -15.2% 91% 3% -29.8%
all 1240 -6.3% -15.2% 91% 3% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover151.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 3% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 1% -36.5%
15% -30.7% 0% -42.7%
20% -37.5% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $1.44 (match) · 3500 history records