Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
29 0x2916…4c1f crypto 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate71%86W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$25
14 days−$18
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% $0
politics 8% +$1
other 6% −$3
tech 4% +$1
world 3% +$1
sports 1% −$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -28.0% -34.9% 55% 35% -34.6%
≤30d 121 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 46% -10.3%
≤90d 121 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 46% -10.3%
all 121 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 46% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 46% -10.3%
10% -19.2% 29% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 19% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses86 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)121 / 127
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 82¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? No 86¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 13 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $2 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $2 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $2 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $1 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 45h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $2 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.33 · official $12.33 (match) · 270 history records