Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2916…4304 crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+5%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%61W / 36L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day142.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 45% -7.8%
≤30d 97 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 97 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 45% -7.8%
all 97 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 45% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 45% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 27% -16.6%
15% -26.3% 14% -24.7%
20% -33.5% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses61 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day142.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records