Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2911…03b8 crypto 88 markets active 5d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-18%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%36W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 63% 37% -1.4%
≤30d 88 -34.5% -40.7% 41% 27% -27.0%
≤90d 88 -34.5% -40.7% 41% 27% -27.0%
all 88 -34.5% -40.7% 41% 27% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 27% -27.0%
10% -46.4% 22% -34.0%
15% -51.6% 10% -40.4%
20% -56.3% 9% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses36 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $18 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$4 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records