Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x290f…9b39 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
other 27% +$1
politics 17% +$7
sports 13% $0
culture 4% $0
weather 2% −$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 +86.2% +68.5% 31% 8% -9.5%
all 30 +38.2% +25.0% 53% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 7% -8.9%
10% +13.1% 7% -17.6%
15% +2.2% 7% -25.6%
20% -7.9% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +75% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage483d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $34 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $36 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $29 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $47 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $8 +$1 +9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $36 $0 -1%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $146 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 14 $145 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 -26%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 22? Mar 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 4? Mar 03 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Donald Trump say Elon during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27? Mar 03 $16 +$7 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $36 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $25 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $11 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $14 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $2 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $14 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $2 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.06 · official $35.06 (match) · 98 history records