Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x290e…57fd other 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%31W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$20
sports 29% −$10
politics 21% −$9
crypto 7% −$4
culture 5% −$2
economics 3% +$2
finance 2% +$4
world 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 92 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -9.7%
all 201 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses31 / 170
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage170d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $56 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $145 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 14 $224 −$2 -1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 14 $97 −$1 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $52 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $196 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 11 $118 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 08 $41 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $38 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $178 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $227 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 01 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 2h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 7h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 8h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 12d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 24d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 24d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $36 31d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $37 31d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $37 43d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $37 43d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 43d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $53 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $53 44d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $5 44d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $5 44d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $40 44d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $41 44d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $39 44d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $40 45d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 94¢ $65 45d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $66 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 95¢ $49 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 95¢ $49 45d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 45d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $57 45d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $52 45d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $52 46d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 870 history records