Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x2907…17a5 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$68
14 days+$48
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$44
other 31% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +44.5% +30.8% 73% 73% +33.5%
≤30d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 44% -16.7%
≤90d 33 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 45% -13.1%
all 33 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 45% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 45% -13.1%
10% -25.2% 42% -21.4%
15% -32.4% 36% -29.0%
20% -39.0% 36% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage67d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +123%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 +$10 +62%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $25 +$6 +26%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 01 $11 −$10 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs May 30 $21 −$21 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand May 30 $5 $0 -7%
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand May 30 $5 $0 -7%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Apr 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New Yor Apr 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $5 +$10 +203%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Apr 11 $8 −$4 -55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Apr 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 10 $41 +$5 +13%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Apr 10 $10 +$3 +35%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Apr 10 $15 +$8 +55%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Apr 10 $6 +$5 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $20 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 13h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 13h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 35¢ $10 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY No 62¢ $20 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $16 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo SELL No 99¢ $20 33h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 50¢ $10 34h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 55¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 52¢ $11 13d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 51¢ $10 13d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY No 52¢ $11 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $19 15d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY No 52¢ $11 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 15d
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 9¢ $5 57d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v SELL No 100¢ $9 63d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 56¢ $5 63d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New Yor BUY No 55¢ $5 63d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 32¢ $3 65d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 28¢ $3 65d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 65d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.33 · official $40.33 (match) · 70 history records