Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2901…f4d6 sports 137 markets active 1d ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,069 (-16%) realized −$15,897 · open −$172
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%59W / 72L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$739per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$371est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$549
14 days−$3,158
30 days−$3,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$8,928
world 17% −$2,276
economics 16% −$3,046
politics 10% −$194
other 9% −$1,814
crypto 3% +$462
culture 2% −$309
tech 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.9% -32.1% 36% 27% -26.9%
≤30d 38 -28.6% -35.4% 34% 32% -28.9%
≤90d 77 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 31% -27.5%
all 131 -18.0% -25.8% 45% 36% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 36% -24.3%
10% -32.9% 28% -31.5%
15% -39.4% 22% -38.1%
20% -45.3% 19% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$789) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$462 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$1,444
Realized−$15,897
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses59 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$371
Open positions6
Markets (closed)131 / 137
History coverage386d
Avg bet$739
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $657 $586 −$70 (-11%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 85¢ 76¢ $508 $452 −$56 (-11%)
Don Lemon sentenced to prison? No 89¢ 83¢ $213 $199 −$15 (-7%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $65 $118 +$52 (+81%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No 77¢ 74¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-3%)
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? Yes 37¢ $123 $25 −$97 (-79%)
Don Lemon sentenced to prison? Yes 17¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $407 +$253 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $322 −$34 -11%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $244 +$311 +127%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 12 $333 −$333 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? Jun 11 $285 +$9 +3%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $175 −$175 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 10 $527 −$527 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $209 +$301 +144%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 10 $163 −$161 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 10 $107 −$106 -99%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 08 $1,705 −$1,683 -99%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $667 −$660 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 28 $173 −$173 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Maria Lourdes Ca May 21 $234 −$229 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu May 20 $238 −$233 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Francisca Jorge May 20 $1,692 −$250 -15%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Katarzyna Kawa May 20 $654 +$556 +85%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Jessika Ponchet May 20 $882 +$829 +94%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Xiyu Wang May 20 $521 −$520 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Kaja Juvan vs Guiomar Maristany May 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Suzan Lamens May 20 $222 −$222 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Lucrezia Stefanin May 20 $273 −$273 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Maria Timofee May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Xinyu Gao vs Harmony Tan May 20 $23 −$22 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Tereza Martincova vs Camila Osorio May 19 $3 +$1 +27%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Lisa Zaar vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 19 $1,940 +$560 +29%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Berfu Cengiz May 19 $16 +$42 +270%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $566 +$942 +167%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Caijsa Hennemann May 19 $1,210 +$639 +53%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 19 $129 −$127 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Jil Teichmann May 19 $55 −$54 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Clara Tauson vs Jaqueline Cristian May 18 $657 −$647 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Peyton Stearns vs Daria Kasatkina May 18 $1,548 −$1,527 -99%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Polona Hercog vs Anna Bondar May 18 $405 +$185 +46%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Moyuka Uchijima May 18 $65 +$86 +133%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Emiliana Arango vs Ella Seidel May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson May 17 $145 +$193 +133%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro May 17 $339 +$443 +131%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks May 17 $5 +$8 +150%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Oksa May 17 $422 +$412 +98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez May 17 $55 −$54 -99%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Ajla Tomljanovic May 17 $400 −$400 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Julia Grabher May 17 $1,118 −$1,103 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li May 17 $163 −$160 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Dalila Spiteri vs Cai May 17 $319 −$312 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Da May 17 $337 −$329 -98%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 17 $55 −$8 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 46¢ $254 27h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 63¢ $2 47h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 56¢ $322 2d
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Caty McNally 61¢ $407 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 20¢ $102 6d
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $294 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $103 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 24¢ $160 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $20 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $75 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $0 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $11 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $49 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $33 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $33 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 59¢ $327 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 60¢ $200 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $5 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 44¢ $244 6d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 25¢ $2 6d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian 42¢ $163 7d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 53¢ $107 7d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic BUY Harriet Dart 20¢ $209 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,444.39 · official $1,444.39 (match) · 1481 history records