Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ff…d56c crypto 1081 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$114 (+0%) realized +$93 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%554W / 518L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$283
7 days+$32
14 days+$135
30 days−$816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$879
sports 30% +$682
other 8% −$809
world 0% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +44.2% +30.5% 42% 42% -8.7%
≤30d 214 +3.5% -6.3% 52% 51% -14.1%
≤90d 1004 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 50% -10.4%
all 1072 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 49% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 49% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 42% -19.2%
15% -30.9% 35% -27.0%
20% -37.7% 25% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$38 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses554 / 518
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1072 / 1081
History coverage92d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1072 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $250 $287 +$37 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $93 $88 −$5 (-6%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $70 +$31 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $72 +$48 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $88 −$65 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $174 +$63 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$91 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$24 +47%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $107 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $104 +$100 +97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 +$85 +70%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7 +$148 +2060%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $201 +$55 +27%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$27 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$50 +49%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$101 +330%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$98 -65%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $302 −$300 -99%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $98 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$41 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $66 −$48 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $74 +$184 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $84 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$32 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $76 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $70 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $120 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $88 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $237 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $174 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $83 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $76 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 19h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $107 20h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 20h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 20h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $204 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $104 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.38 · official $656.38 (match) · 2540 history records