Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28fb…758f crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$401 (-13%) realized −$389 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$12
crypto 26% −$399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -68.7% -71.7% 25% 25% -72.7%
all 15 -53.8% -58.2% 27% 27% -54.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.2% 27% -54.0%
10% -62.2% 27% -58.4%
15% -65.8% 20% -62.4%
20% -69.2% 20% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,238
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage114d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $550 $546 −$4 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 30 $110 −$109 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 30 $200 −$197 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 30 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 21 $32 +$31 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 21 $87 +$84 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 21 $30 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 21 $49 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 21 $84 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 21 $77 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 49m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 49m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 51m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 51m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 51m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $463 51m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $411 52m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 53m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 56m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $110 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $200 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $125 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $100 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,237.53 · official $2,237.53 (match) · 162 history records