Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28fa…7190 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$886 (+14%) realized +$850 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$1,183
sports 26% +$73
crypto 6% −$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.8% -16.5% 44% 44% +4.9%
≤30d 27 -7.8% -16.5% 44% 44% +4.9%
≤90d 27 -7.8% -16.5% 44% 44% +4.9%
all 27 -7.8% -16.5% 44% 44% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 44% +4.9%
10% -24.5% 37% -5.2%
15% -31.8% 37% -14.3%
20% -38.5% 33% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$93 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized+$850
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 59¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Türkiye to win the second half? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $103 −$5 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$94 +93%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $213 −$210 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $223 +$184 +83%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $122 +$113 +93%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $122 +$79 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $150 −$149 -99%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $305 +$52 +17%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $203 −$14 -7%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$60 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$481 +48%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$210 +103%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $662 +$617 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 −$148 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$295 -97%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $362 +$192 +53%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $383 −$45 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $226 +$25 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $263 −$5 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 58¢ $97 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $101 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $208 2h
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $97 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 3h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $112 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 53¢ $112 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 27h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $223 46h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $201 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $150 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $122 2d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 21¢ $64 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 49¢ $189 3d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $293 3d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.45 · official $536.45 (match) · 66 history records