Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28f5…2266
sports · 16 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$380 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$382 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$167
Realized+$382
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 3 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$382
14 days+$382
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 43¢ 42¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $118 +$104 +88%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $49 +$31 +62%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$21 +51%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $72 +$47 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$7 -14%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $52 +$92 +178%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $21 −$19 -91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $132 +$16 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $72 +$55 +77%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $60 −$58 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $82 +$48 +59%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $50 +$37 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$162
other 46% +$125
politics 5% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $51 39m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $221 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 91¢ $80 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $72 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 82¢ $62 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 94¢ $118 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $49 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $49 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $34 11h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $41 13h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $44 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 13h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $72 14h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $144 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $77 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates $2 25h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 23¢ $21 26h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 29h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $127 47h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers $2 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $60 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $72 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 97¢ $130 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $82 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $77 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $82 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +39.2% +26.0% 77% 77% +32.0%
≤30d 13 +39.2% +26.0% 77% 77% +32.0%
≤90d 13 +39.2% +26.0% 77% 77% +32.0%
all 13 +39.2% +26.0% 77% 77% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.0% 77% +32.0%
10% +13.9% 69% +19.4%
15% +2.9% 69% +7.8%
20% -7.2% 62% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.37 · official $167.37 (match) · 32 history records