Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28f1…25eb other 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$44
sports 22% −$18
politics 10% −$4
culture 6% −$8
economics 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage134d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $887 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $209 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $516 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $329 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $172 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $388 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $333 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $165 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $371 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $385 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $311 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 6h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 11h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 13h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 13h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $3 14h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $8 16h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 19h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 20h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 22h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 23h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 24h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 27h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 29h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 30h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 32h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 33h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 35h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 36h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 38h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 39h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 40h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 45h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 46h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.55 · official $60.55 (match) · 1375 history records