Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
28 0x28f1…aa18 crypto 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+2%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate89%350W / 45L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$18
14 days+$5
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +3.4% -6.4% 94% 31% -6.5%
≤30d 372 +0.6% -9.0% 88% 37% -8.7%
≤90d 395 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 37% -8.4%
all 395 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 37% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 37% -8.4%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses350 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)395 / 395
History coverage32d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 395 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 815 history records