Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

28 0x28ed…ac24 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$52 (+13%) realized +$41 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+9.4%	-1.1%	75%	75%	+6.2%
≤30d	4	+9.4%	-1.1%	75%	75%	+6.2%
≤90d	4	+9.4%	-1.1%	75%	75%	+6.2%
all	4	+9.4%	-1.1%	75%	75%	+6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.1%	75%	+6.2%
10%	-10.5%	50%	-4.0%
15%	-19.2%	50%	-13.3%
20%	-27.1%	50%	-21.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$60 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$111

Realized+$41

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	86¢	$50	$61	+$11 (+22%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	81¢	80¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$128	+$67	+52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$50	+$6	+12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$37	+73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$61	−$60	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$50	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$78	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$61	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.76 · official $109.33 · 10 history records