Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ea…21fd sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-3%) realized −$265 · open +$174
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$93
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$40
world 27% +$38
politics 27% +$204
other 15% −$301
crypto 1% −$21
economics 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +17.8% +6.5% 47% 47% +0.7%
≤30d 16 +10.4% -0.1% 44% 44% -10.2%
≤90d 22 +1.5% -8.1% 41% 41% -9.1%
all 41 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 34% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 34% -18.9%
10% -31.4% 34% -26.7%
15% -38.1% 29% -33.8%
20% -44.1% 22% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$41 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$816
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions14
Markets (closed)41 / 55
History coverage148d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $264 $280 +$16 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 15¢ 45¢ $55 $168 +$113 (+206%)
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? No 49¢ 78¢ $49 $78 +$29 (+60%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 69¢ $57 $69 +$12 (+22%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $13 −$4 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +192%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$37 +372%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$65 -64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$25 +25%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $49 +$33 +66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $62 +$38 +60%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$230 +231%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Mar 28 $88 +$111 +126%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $52 +$23 +44%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $140 −$4 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $84 −$13 -16%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? Feb 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 28 $58 −$58 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $166 +$4 +2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 22 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? (February 8) Feb 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 05 $14 +$35 +260%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (February 8) Feb 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Feb 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 9 be released by February 15? Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Feb 01 $295 +$105 +36%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $23 +$6 +28%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 29 $68 −$15 -22%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $7 $0 -6%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jan 21 $304 −$304 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 48¢ $47 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $6 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $4 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 18h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 10¢ $37 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $126 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $101 45h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $102 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $99 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $53 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $9 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $82 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $48 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $14 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $816.11 · official $816.39 (match) · 311 history records