Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28e8…10b1 sports 757 markets active 18h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%418W / 337L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$5
14 days−$21
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$69
world 7% +$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 39% -5.2%
≤30d 89 -9.2% -17.9% 51% 48% -6.3%
≤90d 273 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 47% -10.1%
all 755 -7.9% -16.6% 55% 51% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 51% -8.1%
10% -24.6% 41% -16.9%
15% -31.9% 29% -25.0%
20% -38.6% 21% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses418 / 337
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)755 / 757
History coverage232d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 755 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 −$2 -50%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$10 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 06 $5 +$1 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$15 +298%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $6 +$5 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 11¢ $1 18h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $1 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $2 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 40¢ $1 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 64¢ $2 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $1 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $1 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 24h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $2 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 41h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $1 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $2 41h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.26 · official $200.26 (match) · 1378 history records