Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28e6…3a7e crypto 33 markets active 1d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,408 (-34%) realized −$1,408 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,519
tech 2% −$61
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -51.6% -56.2% 30% 27% -47.2%
≤30d 33 -51.6% -56.2% 30% 27% -47.2%
≤90d 33 -51.6% -56.2% 30% 27% -47.2%
all 33 -51.6% -56.2% 30% 27% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.2% 27% -47.2%
10% ← realistic here -60.4% 21% -52.2%
15% -64.2% 12% -56.9%
20% -67.7% 3% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$85 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,408
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $211 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $209 −$54 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $371 −$371 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $231 −$126 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $620 −$177 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $248 +$104 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $124 +$30 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$65 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $233 −$125 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $203 +$34 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$32 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $61 26h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 45h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 46h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $124 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $124 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $124 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $58 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $70 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $123 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $220 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $124 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $133 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $154 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $124 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $124 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $88 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records