Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28e6…0210 crypto 760 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,798 (-2%) realized −$1,798 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%493W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days+$105
14 days+$103
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% +$30
crypto 9% −$1,538
sports 2% +$281
tech 2% −$151
other 1% −$123
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +3.1% -6.7% 61% 57% -6.0%
≤30d 54 +1.3% -8.3% 59% 56% -6.0%
≤90d 209 +7.4% -2.8% 63% 57% -6.2%
all 759 +4.8% -5.2% 65% 56% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 56% -11.1%
10% -14.3% 42% -19.6%
15% -22.6% 30% -27.4%
20% -30.2% 20% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,798
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses493 / 266
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)759 / 760
History coverage613d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 759 Trades
no open positions (123 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $84 +$36 +43%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $85 +$24 +28%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $77 +$23 +30%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $52 −$8 -16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 +$22 +270%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22 −$21 -94%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $70 −$68 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $140 +$20 +14%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $55 +$15 +27%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $112 +$18 +16%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $81 +$55 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$50 +50%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $113 +$47 +41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $98 −$97 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $104 +$26 +25%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal Jun 23 $76 +$34 +45%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 +$49 +81%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $68 +$32 +47%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 −$6 -45%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +51%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $131 +$60 +46%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $51 +$148 +290%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $129 +$33 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 +$8 +77%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$40 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $82 −$37 -45%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5 Jun 21 $16 +$14 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 −$103 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $74 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $19 −$3 -15%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $29 −$10 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 +$3 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $120 34m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $109 34m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $56 49m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $29 49m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 56m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $34 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Jordan 52¢ $43 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 61¢ $52 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $77 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $50 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $1 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over $2 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $70 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $92 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $140 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $55 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $38 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $93 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $18 24h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $112 24h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $31 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 31h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $98 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2189 history records