Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28e2…d68f other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-12%) realized −$145 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$179
crypto 24% +$115
politics 3% −$13
sports 3% −$5
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -23.9% -31.1% 0% 0% -33.6%
≤90d 8 -42.1% -47.6% 0% 0% -48.8%
all 32 -12.0% -20.4% 12% 12% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 12% -24.3%
10% -28.0% 9% -31.6%
15% -35.0% 9% -38.2%
20% -41.4% 9% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$11 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage138d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $76 $80 +$4 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 01 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 01 $10 $0 -5%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 01 $10 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 01 $10 −$3 -27%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 −$8 -55%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $30 −$5 -18%
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by March 31? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Mar 01 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 25 $53 +$11 +21%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Feb 13 $161 −$6 -4%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 13 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 06 $15 +$45 +300%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $10 +$27 +270%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 01 $10 +$120 +1200%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Feb 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $34 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $73 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $73 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $157 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $157 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 16d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 16d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $10 16d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $10 16d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 16d
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $211 29d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 55d
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 97d
Will the US strike Iran next? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 BUY Yes 61¢ $64 110d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 111d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $103 123d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 123d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 7¢ $20 128d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 132d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 132d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $10 133d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 133d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 53¢ $97 133d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $52 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.37 · official $190.37 (match) · 108 history records