Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28e2…dda6 weather 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate75%127W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$18
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$30
crypto 9% +$2
sports 2% −$10
politics 1% −$1
other 0% −$1
world 0% −$11
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.3% -8.3% 80% 10% -8.9%
≤30d 65 +1.0% -8.7% 89% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 104 +0.4% -9.2% 92% 3% -9.1%
all 170 -3.5% -12.7% 75% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -21.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -28.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses127 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage586d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 +$9 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $109 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $162 −$7 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $150 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? Jun 09 $165 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $159 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 6? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 5? Jun 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 06 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 05 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 04 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $149 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $145 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 01 $170 −$25 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on May May 31 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30? May 31 $164 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $162 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 29? May 30 $162 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 28? May 29 $161 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $94 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $63 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 28? May 28 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $156 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 27? May 28 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 27? May 27 $76 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $167 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $16 46h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $21 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $57 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $61 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $109 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $83 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $33 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $52 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $69 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.63 · official $167.59 (match) · 490 history records