Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
28 0x28e2…d3ab sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$12,908 (-51%) realized −$8,750 · open +$381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%59W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day182.3pace
Fees−$287est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$428
7 days−$4,162
14 days−$7,696
30 days−$8,750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,155
other 47% −$7,042
world 1% −$233
crypto 1% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -61.8% -65.4% 14% 14% -74.7%
≤30d 392 -23.2% -30.5% 15% 15% -45.6%
≤90d 392 -23.2% -30.5% 15% 15% -45.6%
all 392 -23.2% -30.5% 15% 15% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 15% -45.6%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 15% -50.8%
15% -43.2% 15% -55.6%
20% -48.8% 15% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$62 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,391
Realized−$8,750
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses59 / 333
Est. fees paid−$287
Open positions22
Markets (closed)392 / 407
History coverage17d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day182.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $622 $970 +$349 (+56%)
Spread: Club ABB (-1.5) Club ABB 29¢ 52¢ $299 $527 +$228 (+76%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 39¢ 51¢ $98 $128 +$30 (+30%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 56¢ $98 $90 −$8 (-8%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ 39¢ $94 $83 −$11 (-11%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 15¢ 18¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 50¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 44¢ $41 $52 +$11 (+26%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 55¢ $57 $52 −$6 (-10%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ 38¢ $54 $47 −$7 (-13%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 50¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 46¢ 42¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $41 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 40¢ $46 $37 −$9 (-19%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 20¢ $46 $35 −$11 (-24%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 20¢ 19¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 28¢ 16¢ $49 $29 −$19 (-40%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 16¢ $100 $27 −$73 (-73%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club ABB: Both Teams to Score No 34¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club ABB: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 49¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+133%)
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-09? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5 Over 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $44 +$112 +253%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$50 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$4 +510%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$69 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$69 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $41 +$209 +510%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $49 −$47 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$72 +72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $12 +$7 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 11 $34 −$34 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $100 +$82 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $101 +$53 +52%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $101 −$99 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Angola (-1.5) Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $99 −$98 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $97 −$97 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $85 +$153 +180%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 57m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 57m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 59m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 59m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $50 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $33 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $6 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $23 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $50 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 20¢ $38 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $40 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $42 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,390.81 · official $2,371.99 (match) · 3500 history records