Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28df…4c3e other 24 markets active 16h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$6
sports 19% −$1
world 17% +$3
crypto 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 46% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 46% -10.2%
≤90d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 46% -10.2%
all 13 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 46% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 46% -10.2%
10% -20.3% 31% -18.8%
15% -28.0% 31% -26.7%
20% -35.1% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)13 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $58 $51 −$8 (-13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 37¢ $31 $42 +$10 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $76 +$5 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $59 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $81 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 81¢ $66 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 90¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 99¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.34 · official $256.34 (match) · 60 history records