Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28df…d86c world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$170 (+21%) realized +$205 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$180
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$12
world 42% +$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.7% +11.9% 100% 67% +22.4%
≤30d 7 +22.3% +10.7% 100% 71% +21.1%
≤90d 7 +22.3% +10.7% 100% 71% +21.1%
all 7 +22.3% +10.7% 100% 71% +21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 71% +21.1%
10% +0.1% 14% +9.5%
15% -9.6% 14% -1.1%
20% -18.4% 14% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage22d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $191 $172 −$19 (-10%)
Obama arrested before 2027? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $84 $69 −$15 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Jun 15 $106 +$10 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$3 +6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 14 $184 +$142 +78%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 13 $76 +$12 +16%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 11 $98 +$12 +12%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 02 $39 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $148 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 1h
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $108 3h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 3h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 16h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 37h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 33¢ $9 41h
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 41h
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 41h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 43h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 43h
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $88 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $8 3d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $76 3d
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $42 3d
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $3 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $20 4d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $49 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $8 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.11 · official $241.11 (match) · 78 history records