Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28dc…357b sports 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$801 (+13%) realized +$803 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%145W / 101L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$505
14 days+$572
30 days+$722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$913
other 11% −$153
crypto 7% −$52
finance 2% +$4
tech 1% +$12
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 40% +2.7%
≤30d 91 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 49% +5.1%
≤90d 246 +3.4% -6.5% 59% 56% +1.6%
all 246 +3.4% -6.5% 59% 56% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 56% +1.6%
10% -15.4% 50% -8.1%
15% -23.6% 41% -17.0%
20% -31.1% 30% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$803
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses145 / 101
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions4
Markets (closed)246 / 250
History coverage67d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ 58¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $178 +$238 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$158 -31%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -22%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$93 -92%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $40 +$20 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$16 +52%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$14 +34%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$17 -83%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: BIG vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$18 -50%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $46 −$17 -38%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $243 +$167 +68%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $101 −$88 -87%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $9 +$6 +68%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $302 +$83 +27%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 54m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 54m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 55m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $127 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 54¢ $346 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 43¢ $16 20h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $20 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ $6 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ $101 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $20 43h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $40 44h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 44h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 73¢ $10 44h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $10 44h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $10 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $50 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $410 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 12¢ $0 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 58¢ $243 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 9¢ $13 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 66¢ $101 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 68¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 69¢ $30 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $101 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 99¢ $15 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 70¢ $202 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.40 · official $108.40 (match) · 576 history records