Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28dc…a1f2 other 1466 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,665 (+4%) realized +$23,233 · open +$432
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%843W / 617L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$2,370est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$4,255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,210
7 days−$2,905
14 days+$801
30 days+$3,486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$24,259
sports 27% +$106
world 0% −$1,219
finance 0% −$618
crypto 0% +$1,014
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +21.8% +10.2% 52% 52% -16.0%
≤30d 289 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 54% -7.7%
≤90d 1460 +5.9% -4.2% 58% 56% -6.3%
all 1460 +5.9% -4.2% 58% 56% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 56% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 54% -15.3%
15% -21.7% 48% -23.5%
20% -29.4% 38% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$666) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$383 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4,255
Realized+$23,233
Unrealized+$432
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses843 / 617
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$2,370
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1460 / 1466
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$448
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 46¢ 48¢ $1,288 $1,330 +$42 (+3%)
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? No 80¢ 92¢ $850 $972 +$122 (+14%)
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? No 36¢ 62¢ $380 $659 +$280 (+74%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 46¢ $630 $637 +$7 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $602 $595 −$7 (-1%)
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw? Yes 60¢ 50¢ $72 $61 −$12 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 354 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fortaleza EC vs. América FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,044 +$356 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $152 +$354 +233%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 −$499 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,331 −$1,331 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $970 −$968 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $440 −$431 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $500 −$490 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $654 −$644 -98%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $691 +$709 +103%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $500 +$900 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $715 −$714 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,263 +$4,137 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,085 −$1,078 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $129 +$1,271 +982%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $612 +$788 +129%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,085 −$1,078 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,449 −$49 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $947 +$453 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,233 −$3,192 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,044 +$356 +34%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $768 +$198 +26%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $813 +$587 +72%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,003 −$994 -99%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $447 +$328 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $598 +$802 +134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $570 −$560 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $612 +$788 +129%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $780 +$620 +79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $668 +$732 +109%
Will Bohemians Dublin FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $668 +$732 +109%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $972 +$428 +44%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $675 −$672 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $752 −$742 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $892 −$882 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $850 −$840 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $443 −$434 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $237 −$232 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $605 +$795 +131%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $710 +$690 +97%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $856 +$544 +64%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $112 −$112 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $325 +$316 +97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $752 +$648 +86%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $12 −$11 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $192 −$189 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $612 17m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $640 38m
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $385 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 80¢ $6 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 80¢ $6 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 80¢ $6 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 80¢ $6 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 80¢ $6 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 80¢ $825 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $654 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $654 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $152 17h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 17h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $501 17h
Will Fortaleza EC vs. América FC end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1,044 17h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $761 19h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $739 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $7 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $94 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $47 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $333 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $180 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $288 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $66 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $83 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $83 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,254.56 · official $4,249.25 (match) · 3500 history records