Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28da…89d7 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-6%) realized −$127 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1
world 29% +$108
crypto 8% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 29¢ 60¢ $100 $208 +$108 (+108%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.43 · official $423.43 (match) · 8 history records