Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28d8…eee6 sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$259 (+13%) realized +$258 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%58W / 71L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days+$39
14 days+$248
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$292
other 10% −$60
world 3% +$1
tech 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +7.4% -2.8% 38% 38% -5.9%
≤30d 129 +6.5% -3.7% 45% 45% +2.7%
≤90d 129 +6.5% -3.7% 45% 45% +2.7%
all 129 +6.5% -3.7% 45% 45% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 45% +2.7%
10% -12.9% 45% -7.2%
15% -21.3% 42% -16.1%
20% -29.0% 40% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses58 / 71
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)129 / 133
History coverage14d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 10¢ 23¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+130%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +194%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $10 +$13 +123%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$101 +198%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$11 +107%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$14 +279%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$16 +320%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$113 +1104%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +437%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $10 +$7 +71%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $30 +$9 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$15 +74%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $10 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $15 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $20 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 9h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 19¢ $8 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $9 9h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $20 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 10h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $20 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $10 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 24h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $38 25h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $19 31h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 100¢ $23 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 32h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 52¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.70 · official $56.70 (match) · 239 history records