Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x28d2…fa4b sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+14%) realized +$21 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$20
sports 29% +$40
world 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +62.4% +47.0% 39% 39% -0.9%
≤30d 33 +62.4% +47.0% 39% 39% -0.9%
≤90d 33 +62.4% +47.0% 39% 39% -0.9%
all 33 +62.4% +47.0% 39% 39% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.0% 39% -0.9%
10% +32.9% 36% -10.4%
15% +20.1% 36% -19.1%
20% +8.3% 33% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +108% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)33 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$17 +1667%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 34m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 39¢ $2 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 23h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 7¢ $0 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $1 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.01 · official $41.01 (match) · 76 history records