Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28d1…ffd0 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$365 (+17%) realized +$376 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$172
14 days+$333
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$118
sports 22% +$174
world 18% +$79
economics 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.5% -29.0% 47% 41% +3.7%
≤30d 23 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 48% +10.5%
≤90d 25 -12.2% -20.6% 48% 44% +9.7%
all 31 -18.9% -26.6% 45% 42% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 42% +10.2%
10% -33.6% 35% -0.3%
15% -40.0% 35% -9.9%
20% -45.9% 26% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$12 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage101d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-3%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $61 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $17 −$7 (-30%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $119 +$81 +67%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $34 +$5 +14%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $24 +$26 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$34 +56%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $12 +$18 +146%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $206 +$94 +46%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $292 +$28 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $267 +$32 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$4 -25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $127 +$72 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $49 +$50 +102%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +163%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $130 +$56 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 13 $164 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $36 −$5 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 24 $45 +$34 +76%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $69 +$31 +45%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $63 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $93 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $67 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $38 17h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $119 20h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $34 20h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $12 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 38h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $24 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $84 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 41h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $4 41h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $5 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $206 43h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $292 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $299 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $267 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.80 · official $248.80 (match) · 88 history records