Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28d1…f5a4 politics 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$18
other 27% −$33
sports 22% −$4
culture 6% −$6
finance 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
economics 2% $0
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 66 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 120 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 138 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 122
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage104d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $46 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $47 $0 -1%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 21 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Jun 19 $41 −$2 -5%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 19 $47 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $65 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $89 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $433 −$2 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 11 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $49 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $107 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $65 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 8h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 95¢ $46 9h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $46 14h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $22 15h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 93¢ $22 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $46 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $47 24h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 98¢ $58 25h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 97¢ $57 30h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 30h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 38h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 39h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 45h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $52 46h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 92¢ $48 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 91¢ $47 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $52 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $50 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $51 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $52 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.55 · official $50.55 (match) · 519 history records