Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28cc…ffb1 crypto 155 markets active 3d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-2%) realized −$96 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%56W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$393
14 days−$261
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$209
other 5% −$136
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -29.7% -36.4% 33% 31% -47.2%
≤30d 151 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 34% -18.3%
≤90d 151 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 34% -18.3%
all 151 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 34% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 34% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 30% -26.2%
15% -36.1% 27% -33.3%
20% -42.4% 24% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses56 / 95
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)151 / 155
History coverage19d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$22 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$13 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$11 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$51 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $54 +$70 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$20 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$53 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$40 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $37 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $27 +$276 +1040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $58 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.38 · official $54.38 (match) · 473 history records