Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
28 0x28ca…5d19 other 714 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$14,340 (+5%) realized +$21,881 · open −$7,541
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate86%348W / 59L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$84,937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% +$33,620
other 31% −$251
sports 3% +$1,623
culture 3% +$1,819
world 2% +$997
tech 0% +$49
crypto 0% +$20
finance 0% +$80
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +35.1% +22.2% 83% 40% +9.7%
≤30d 407 +53.0% +38.4% 86% 38% +8.7%
≤90d 407 +53.0% +38.4% 86% 38% +8.7%
all 407 +53.0% +38.4% 86% 38% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.4% 38% +8.7%
10% +25.2% 26% -1.7%
15% ← realistic here +13.1% 18% -11.2%
20% +2.0% 15% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +74% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$103 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.52 per $1 lost it wins $8.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$84,937
Realized+$21,881
Unrealized−$7,541
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses348 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions455
Markets (closed)407 / 714
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$413
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 455 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 TOUR Championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,864 $3,891 +$27 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 40¢ 76¢ $1,849 $3,538 +$1,689 (+91%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $3,206 $3,474 +$268 (+8%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 87¢ 99¢ $2,919 $3,340 +$421 (+14%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $2,458 $2,645 +$187 (+8%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $2,591 $2,591 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,468 $2,564 +$95 (+4%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 97¢ $1,766 $2,022 +$256 (+14%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 80¢ $2,136 $1,999 −$137 (-6%)
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 74¢ 76¢ $1,863 $1,926 +$63 (+3%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 85¢ 76¢ $2,003 $1,803 −$200 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,457 $1,456 −$1 (-0%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $1,366 $1,382 +$16 (+1%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 90¢ $930 $1,264 +$333 (+36%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,163 $1,189 +$27 (+2%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,107 $1,101 −$6 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $875 $1,045 +$170 (+19%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $948 $1,011 +$63 (+7%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 50¢ 16¢ $3,062 $950 −$2,113 (-69%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 73¢ 28¢ $2,396 $920 −$1,476 (-62%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 84¢ 78¢ $982 $913 −$69 (-7%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 77¢ 100¢ $678 $878 +$200 (+30%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 19¢ 18¢ $935 $875 −$60 (-6%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $935 $875 −$60 (-6%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 91¢ 92¢ $858 $871 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +18%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $783 −$450 -58%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $132 +$225 +171%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $1,735 +$399 +23%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $1,863 +$70 +4%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 21 $89 +$7 +7%
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 21 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 21 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 21 $807 −$70 -9%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 21 $811 +$150 +18%
Will Sweden finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Japan finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 21 $113 +$9 +8%
Will Tunisia win the World Cup? Jun 21 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $12 +$3 +21%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $447 +$226 +50%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $4,500 +$417 +9%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $369 +$192 +52%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 20 $102 +$2 +2%
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage Jun 19 $301 +$46 +15%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $906 +$74 +8%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $202 +$34 +17%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $3,136 +$1,682 +54%
Will Paige Loud be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $693 +$7 +1%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $2,325 +$1,731 +74%
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi Jun 19 $48 +$116 +241%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 19 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $58,209 +$12,624 +22%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,838 +$35 +2%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $42,207 +$9,896 +23%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $343 −$132 -39%
Will Tanvir Ahmad win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election Jun 19 $226 +$4 +2%
Will Mel Sullivan win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Nurul Hoque Ali win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Jo Hart win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $110 +$10 +9%
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Jun 18 $186 +$11 +6%
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary Jun 18 $493 +$37 +8%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1,106 +$109 +10%
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 18 $747 +$161 +22%
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 18 $542 +$63 +12%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1,534 +$327 +21%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $54 +$26 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 88¢ $43 9m
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 75¢ $10 33m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 35m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $68 55m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 56m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 57m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 89¢ $447 57m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 58m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 59m
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $93 59m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 59m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 1h
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 84¢ $18 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $93 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 1h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $63 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $98 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $98 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $27 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $71 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $83 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $98 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 19¢ $98 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84,936.81 · official $84,936.77 (match) · 3500 history records