Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

28 0x28c3…1d32 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip

Net edge-65%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$785per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$8

7 days−$1

14 days−$9

30 days−$11

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-63.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-49.9%	-54.7%	50%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	17	-52.9%	-57.3%	47%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	20	-59.9%	-63.7%	40%	0%	-9.7%
all	20	-59.9%	-63.7%	40%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.7%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-67.2%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-70.4%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-73.3%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,058) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -80% → late -40% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.55 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized−$27

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage37d

Avg bet$785

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	Jun 21	$2,025	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	Jun 20	$2,021	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	Jun 07	$2,072	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6?	Jun 06	$2,070	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	Jun 06	$2,066	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	Jun 05	$2,062	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	Jun 05	$2,058	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	Jun 04	$2,053	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	Jun 03	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 30?	May 31	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	May 27	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	May 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17?	May 17	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14?	May 15	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,025	1h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,021	21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY No	0¢	$4	3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	96¢	$5	7d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	BUY No	100¢	$2,072	14d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6?	BUY No	100¢	$2,070	14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	BUY No	100¢	$2,066	15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY No	100¢	$2,062	15d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	BUY No	100¢	$2,058	16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,053	16d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	21d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	27d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	34d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	37d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.13 · official $5.13 (match) · 31 history records