Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28c1…dc27 weather 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-12%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate35%32W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$32
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$27
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -26.4% -33.4% 33% 16% -27.6%
≤30d 91 -20.7% -28.2% 35% 20% -24.0%
≤90d 91 -20.7% -28.2% 35% 20% -24.0%
all 91 -20.7% -28.2% 35% 20% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 20% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 9% -31.3%
15% -41.4% 8% -37.9%
20% -47.1% 5% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses32 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)91 / 102
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 15? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 10? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +77%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 37¢ $1 8h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 37¢ $1 8h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 34¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 13h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.56 · official $18.39 (match) · 426 history records