Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28c0…15fb sports 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+6%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%133W / 129L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$22
other 16% +$64
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 2 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤90d 2 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% -6.5%
all 262 +10.1% -0.3% 51% 47% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 47% -4.3%
10% -9.9% 41% -13.4%
15% -18.6% 40% -21.8%
20% -26.6% 34% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses133 / 129
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage140d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$2 -2%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-13.5) Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-16.5) Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 20 $14 −$11 -81%
Spread: Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) Mar 20 $4 +$2 +63%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 20 $3 +$3 +126%
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-2.5) Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-2.5) Mar 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will England win? Mar 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Seton Hall Pirates vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 133.5 Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Toledo Rockets (-3.5) Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 14 $4 +$3 +79%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5) Mar 14 $5 +$4 +72%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 160.5 Mar 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: Florida Gators (-8.5) Mar 14 $4 +$2 +63%
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-2.5) Mar 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Cornell Big Red vs. Yale Bulldogs Mar 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Spread: Harvard Crimson (-2.5) Mar 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-6.5) Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-8.5) Mar 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Southern Jaguars vs. Florida A&M Rattlers Mar 14 $4 +$2 +54%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-4.5) Mar 14 $5 +$4 +66%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Spread: VCU Rams (-8.5) Mar 13 $3 $0 +3%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 147.5 Mar 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-6.5) Mar 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5) Mar 13 $6 +$3 +60%
LoL: Team Phantasma vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Spread: Florida Gators (-10.5) Mar 13 $3 +$1 +20%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Mar 13 $3 +$2 +49%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CIS LAN Champion Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Albany Great Danes (-5.5) Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 77¢ $57 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 27m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 67¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $88 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $91 2h
Spread: Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) SELL Saint Louis Billikens 87¢ $6 101d
Spread: Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) BUY Saint Louis Billikens 53¢ $4 102d
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-2.5) BUY Saint Marys Gaels 54¢ $4 102d
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars BUY BYU Cougars 57¢ $4 102d
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-16.5) BUY North Dakota State Bison 52¢ $4 102d
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-13.5) BUY Troy Trojans 52¢ $4 102d
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes BUY TCU Horned Frogs 44¢ $3 102d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? BUY No 17¢ $3 104d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela BUY Japan 12¢ $1 106d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela BUY Japan 34¢ $3 106d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela SELL Japan 90¢ $3 106d
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-2.5) SELL St. Johns Red Storm 99¢ $7 106d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela BUY Japan 58¢ $10 106d
Avalanche vs. Jets BUY Avalanche 13¢ $1 107d
Hornets vs. Spurs SELL Hornets 9¢ $1 107d
Will England win? SELL No 84¢ $8 107d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA BUY Dominican Rep. 46¢ $5 107d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Hornets 10¢ $1 107d
Will England win? BUY No 69¢ $7 107d
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-2.5) BUY St. Johns Red Storm 52¢ $4 107d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico SELL Italy 95¢ $7 107d
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5) SELL Wisconsin Badgers 90¢ $9 107d
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 160.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 107d
Spread: Florida Gators (-8.5) SELL Vanderbilt Commodores 90¢ $6 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 713 history records